# Comments on Ren Arceño’s Epic February 23 10:13pm Speech in teh group

here‘s teh epic speech. What my Facebook note didn’t include were the comments in teh group. So, here (+1 means I like it, and I don’t know why I didn’t before):

# Fender Avril Lavigne Giveaway

I entered the “Fender Avril Lavigne Giveaway.”

It says

“Want to double your chances of winning?

When one of your friends enters…
You get an extra entry*!
* Maximum of one extra entry person

Double?

Let x, y > 0. Let P(me winning|I do not share) $= \frac{1}{x}$, and let P(me winning|I share) $= \frac{2}{x+y}$ where $x = \left | A \right |$ and $y = \left | B \right |$ where $A$ = {people who would have known about this even if I did not share} and $B$ = {people who know about this specifically because I shared} = {people who know about this} \ A.

$\underline{Assumption \ 1}$: The number of people who would have known about this had I not shared is greater than the number of people who know about this specifically because I shared.

$\underline{Proposition \ 2}$: The probability of me winning if I share is greater.

$\underline{Pf:}$**
$y < x$ (by assumption 1)
$x+y < 2x$
$\frac{1}{x} < \frac{2}{x+y}$.

My increased probability is $f(x,y) = \frac{2}{x+y} - \frac{1}{x} = \frac{x-y}{(x)(x+y)}$.

$\underline{Corollary \ 3:}$My chances of winning is not doubled if I share it.

$\underline{Pf:}$

y≠0 => 2P(me winning|I do not share)≠P(me winning|I share)

$\underline{Exercise:}$ Explain the meaning of $f(x,y)$ as $y \to x$, if any.

Note: P(me winning) = P(I do not share) P(me winning|I do not share) + P(me winning|I share) P(I share) by Bayes’ Theorem

# Why I Didn’t Go To The Blue Roast

The ff is taken from my Facebook timeline. The guy who commented is a former President of Wikimedia Philippines. I ran into him at the library later that day, a few hours after the exit interview. Apparently, he couldn’t go because he had Theo orals, iirc.

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Niccolo Waitforit Bentulan shared a link.

March 20

Though I’m not going to the Blue Roast, I still am going to school.#960

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exit_interview

Exit interview – Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
en.wikipedia.org
An exit interview is a survey conducted with an individual who is separating from an organization or relationship. Most commonly, this occurs between an employee and an organization, a student and an educational institution, or a member and an association. An exit interview is the most accurate inst…

2Like · · Promote · Share

Josh Lim Why not? (Though I’m also thinking of not going to Blue Roast tomorrow, I’m just curious. :P)
March 20 at 12:26am · Like

Niccolo Waitforit Bentulan Josh, please ignore my “Nice comment :))” message. I thought you deleted it after you commented. I guess I just didn’t refresh or whatever, hahaha (I swear, when I opened the notification, your comment wasn’t there).

Anyway, in descending order are my reasons of not going (that is, the main reason is #1; feel free to skip the rest):

1.) I find it to be a waste of money (no offense to anyone).

2.) I find it to be a plot/ploy/whatever for the school to exploit the “it’s the penultimate event of my undergrad life. Why not?” mentality and other similar mentalities (no offense to anyone).

3.) a.) I find it to be a plot/ploy/whatever for the school to exploit people (no offense to anyone) who have a crush. I recall the Filipino teacher at the SOSE/SOSS Pabaon saying (in English, as I recall), “Don’t miss out this chance to give your blue rose” or something to that effect.

b.) I find the whole blue rose thing to support the mentality, “I won’t confess now. I’ll just confess during the Blue Roast” (no offense to anyone). [I find it analogous to the New Year’s Resolutions “Oh screw it. I’ll change my life starting January 1” mentality and other similar mentalities (no offense to anyone). I guess though that it’s another story when January comes around then you think of what resolutions to make, but then again, that might lead to the previous mentality or other similar ones.]

“We shouldn’t show our feelings only when it probably is too late and it’s time to say goodbye lest we be left wondering about all the “what ifs” and “what-could-have-beens” in life.” (from here: http://miggyzaballero.wordpress.com/2011/03/23/lesson-16-from-the-blue-roast-last-year/)

Of course, not everyone is going for said reasons, and if they are, then it’s their choice. To each his/her own.

Anyway, I take it you haven’t bought a ticket?

miggyzaballero.wordpress.com

It’s been a year since my batch’s blue roast – the event highlighted by the giving of a single blue rose to your college crush, to your one true love, to your dream girl/boy, secret crush, fantasy,…

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After some friends invited me that morning, I ended up hanging with them around Bellarmine field/Gesu, meeting new people, getting a blue rose and playing Quake, I think, and Path of Exile until like 4 am at Mineski despite me rarely playing computer games (aside, of course, from 960).

Mineski btw is miles from My Place Residence Hall. 🙂